Survey of business economists shows improved jobs outlook

Survey of business economists shows improved jobs outlook - Jan. 24, 2011:
"Economists see more hiring on the way
By Charles Riley, staff reporter
January 24, 2011: 11:16 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In another sign of a strengthening economy, U.S. companies say they are planning to hire more workers, and expect economic growth to pick up in the first months of 2011, according to a survey released Monday.
The National Association for Business Economics said the hiring outlook for the next six months is at a 12-year high."

How about that! Will the sun peep out over the job market horizon, at long last? With a new Congress in D.C. and the promises of supporting small businesses in the coming year(s), is this really a turning point for the jobs market in the US?

The upcoming State of Confusion address

Obama's economic agenda: Boost US competitiveness

"By JULIE PACE  Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Under pressure to energize the economy, President Barack Obama will put job creation and American competitiveness at the center of his State of the Union address, ..."


How astute! It only took, what, 2 years to figure this out?

"... promoting spending on education and research while pledging to trim the nation's soaring debt. Obama hopes this framework will woo Republicans as he searches for success in a divided Congress and will sway a wary private sector to hire and spend money it's held back. The economy is on firmer footing than when he took office two years ago, and his emphasis on competitiveness signals a shift from policies geared toward short-term stabilization to ones with steady and long-term growth in mind."

You don't say! When will this administration, and the new Congress, figure out that small business is the key to a strong economy. Taxing small businesses out of business does NOT raise any revenue or create any jobs. It is short sighted and foolish, and onerous regulations such as the hidden 1099 tax change due to kick in for 2012 is a classic case of Congressional stupidity.

Were there 445,000 layoffs around Christmas 2010?

Initial claims jump 35,000 to 445,000 in latest week - Jan. 13, 2011:
"Jobless claims climb by 35,000
By Blake Ellis
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits jumped sharply last week, two weeks after hitting a 2-1/2 year low below 400,000.
There were 445,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Jan. 8, the Labor Department said in a weekly report Thursday.
That's up 35,000 from a revised 410,000 the previous week -- when jobless claims climbed back above 400,000 after falling below that mark for the first time in more than two years."

Misleading title on the original article. If I'm reading this correctly, in the first week of January '11, nearly a half million workers filed their INITIAL (as in, just fired) jobless claims. A half million pink slips over the Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanza season? Corporate grinches, with bells on!

This is just more terrible news, not the ideal way to ring in the New Year. Apparently some didn't have much of a problem over the holidays ...

Wealthy treated themselves during the holidays

"By MAE ANDERSON and ANNE D'INNOCENZIO

NEW YORK (AP) -- The rich treated themselves like royalty this holiday season. That spun the holidays into gold for Tiffany & Co. and other high-end retailers.
Wealthier shoppers traded up to more expensive gold and diamond jewelry from silver charms. Designer clothing and purses were back.


The splurges are good news for the economy, because the richest 5 percent of Americans, those making at least $207,000 annually, account for about 14 percent of all spending. And consumer spending makes up about 70 percent of the economy." 

Does that mean the top 5% wealthiest individuals or is that a joint or family income qualifier? Because $207K a year for a well educated and professionally employed Mr & Mrs is pretty common these days, and still falls into "middle class" status (ain't much left after taxes). If such a low income makes up the richest 5% of our economy, I'm terrified. It just means things are worse than I imagined (and if you've read these postings, I have imagined pretty bad numbers).

California Gov. Brown’s spending plan seeks to close $25.4 billion deficit

California budget to leave many displeased - MarketWatch:
"By Russ Britt, MarketWatch LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — With California teetering on the brink of financial ruin, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday offered a state spending plan that he said is sure to be painful, and that is almost certain to please no one, especially not voters.

Brown is proposing spending cuts of $12.5 billion, including an 8% to 10% cut in take-home pay for most state employees, and what he called a “vast and historic” restructuring of California’s government.
...
He also would eliminate tax relief for those businesses in “enterprise zones,” or depressed areas.
...
Already, Brown said he has cut $7 million, or 25%, from operations of his own offices, including the elimination of the state First Lady staff."

It was only a matter of time before State Governments began the layoffs and pay cuts. But what about those "depressed" areas? Does it make any sense to tax small businesses struggling to survive in these areas out of business? Wouldn't it make more sense to encourage businesses to prosper, hire more locals and raise the area out of poverty, and collect more sales and payroll taxes from the increased profits?

We should require IQ tests before a politician is allowed to run for office. Basic math skills would help too, testing them at an eighth grader level might do wonders for our country!

December 2010 jobs report: Payrolls up, unemployment rates falls

December jobs report: Payrolls up, unemployment rates falls - Jan. 7, 2011:
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- High hopes for December's employment numbers were dashed Friday, when the Labor Department reported disappointing job gains for the month. But the unemployment rate took a surprising dive.

The economy added 103,000 jobs in December -- falling short of most expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate sunk to 9.4%, its lowest level since May 2009, confusing some economists. While a sharply lower unemployment rate was a welcome surprise, some experts said that drop was mostly due to a shrinking workforce."

and

"About 260,000 adults dropped out of the labor force for various reasons, and were no longer counted as unemployed by the government. The overall participation rate in the U.S. labor force fell to a new recession low of 64.3%. "Incredibly, the U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the recession started, though it should have grown by over 4 million workers to keep up with working-age population growth over this period," said economist Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute."

The news just gets worse and worse. As small businesses collapse, with literally hundreds shutting down daily, the job market is rapidly shrinking. The last 2 years have taken a toll on the backbone of our economy, the small business, with the Federal, State and City Governments taxing or regulating most out of business in such a short time.

With a new Congress seated in D.C. to greet a New Year, one can only hope this new batch has a better understanding of what is wrong with our economy, and that taxing businesses out of business results in collection of NO tax once they shut down.

Stimulus price tag: $2.8 trillion

Stimulus price tag: $2.8 trillion - Dec. 20, 2010:
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Since the recession began three years ago, Congress has poured a total of $2.8 trillion into the economy in an effort to spur hiring, get people spending again and prop up industries struggling to stay afloat.

While the $858 billion package of tax cuts passed last week was the biggest slice of stimulus yet, it accounts for less than a third of all the money spent since the start of 2008, according to multiple cost estimates prepared by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office over the last three years."
 ...
"Public works projects like road and school repair or efforts to develop clean energy and high speed rail, along with help for state and local governments, was a relatively small part of the total stimulus -- just over $250 billion, or about 9% of the spending, most of it found in the stimulus act passed at the start of the Obama administration."


All right, this year is just about over. Lets face facts, this nearly 3 trillion dollars was wasted. The economy still isn't "fixed", jobs are still not being created, small businesses are still crashing and burning. Bankers and automakers are snickering all the way to the proverbial bank, everyone else (and their children) are and will be paying for this debacle for decades to come.

Come January a new Congress will have to figure out a way, not just to fix the economy, but also to undo the ravages of "bailouts" that have made things worse. Lets wish them luck, common sense, and basic math skills. And remind them of the next Congressional elections in 2012, aka the Mayan calendar's final year.

If only we had all the gold those Mayans had back then!

Structural unemployment? What nonsense.

Why structural unemployment isn't the job market's problem - Oct. 11, 2010:
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An increasingly fierce debate is raging over the reason why unemployment is still so stubbornly high.
While most people think businesses simply aren't hiring enough to absorb the millions of unemployed workers, a rising tide of prominent economists dispute that. They claim that there are jobs out there, just not the right candidates to fill them."

I guess its a slow news day for this Columbus Day holiday, but for any media outlet to publish such a nonsense story is atrocious. Of course there are "jobs" out there, but would you really expect an engineer, say, to flip burgers at the local fast-food joint ... or would he/she look for a job as, say, an engineer perhaps?

"With more than 3 million job openings reported by the Labor Department, the unemployment rate should be close to 6.5%, said Kocherlatokta, not the 9.6% where it stands now.

He said that one of the reasons for the worsening imbalance is that so many underwater homeowners who can't sell their houses are unable to move in search of job opportunities."

Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Perhaps his Presidentshipness would like to fill one of the job openings in his own agency, say, as a janitor? And this clown is in charge of a Federal Reserve Bank, no wonder we are wallowing in the fiscal doldrums.


Its quite simple. Employers employ employees. Duh. Less employers, less openings for employees, ergo higher unemployment. The current tax and regulatory environment coupled with the lack of any available funding from banks is killing our small businesses, whose owners are packing it up and looking for jobs themselves. Bailing out banks, car makers and health insurance companies is NOT creating jobs - because it is NOT helping small businesses to survive, forget about growth. Small businesses form the bulk of "employers", not mega-corporations, who are gleefully slicing and dicing at their employee salaries and benefits while the current Congress is blindly stumbling around throwing wads of taxpayer money into every trough they can find.
 
The trillions that have been wasted on these foolish bailouts should have been routed to small business as tax credits. It would not cost as much, since no taxpayer money would be paid out up front. As businesses prosper, they will increase tax revenues in the long run by increasing hiring and thus consumer spending from the happily employed, who will no doubt run out and buy High Definition 3D televisions with every paycheck. And if any business fails, it didn't cost the government a dime - since the failed business is not going to be taking that tax credit. I'm no economist, but this is straightforward common sense. In the immortal words of Voltaire (François-Marie Arouet), "Common sense is not so common". Especially in Congress.